This was the week the market decided to look past the war.

The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,230, a new all-time high, up 0.29% on the day. The Nasdaq hit 25,114, also a record. Both indexes posted their strongest monthly performances since 2020. The Dow lagged, slipping 0.31% on Friday, but the broader message was clear: risk appetite is back and it came back fast.

April was a month that started with the market still digesting the March crash. The KOSPI had dropped 18% in two days. BTC had been sitting in the low $70s. Oil was above $110. By months end, the S&P had rallied to fresh highs, BTC closed at $78,300 for a 12% monthly gain, and the dominant narrative had flipped from "how bad does this get" to "when does the deal happen."

The catalyst on Friday was Apple. Fiscal Q2 earnings and revenue beat, and the revenue outlook for the current quarter came in above expectations. Shares jumped 3%. iPhone revenue missed for the second time in three quarters, but nobody cared. The market wanted a reason to stay bullish and Apple gave it one.

But the bigger story of the week wasnt any single earnings report. It was the accumulation of signals that the Iran war might be approaching an endpoint.

On Thursday, Trump sent a War Powers letter formally ending hostilities while preserving military posture under Article II authority. On Friday evening, Senators Tillis and Alsobrooks released the final CLARITY Act compromise text on stablecoin yield. Coinbase CEO Armstrong, who killed the January markup over this exact issue, responded with "Mark it up." Polymarket odds for CLARITY Act passage jumped from 46% to 64%.

And underneath all of it, oil prices fell on Friday after Iran reportedly submitted a fresh negotiation response through Pakistani mediators. WTI dropped to $103. Brent eased to $110.

The crypto side of the ledger matched the optimism. BTC closed April at $78,300, its highest monthly close since January. The 12% monthly gain was powered by spot ETF inflows that reversed course after three straight days of outflows, posting $4.5 million in net buys on Thursday. Circle stock jumped 9.7% to $99.70. The CLARITY Act deal was read as directly bullish for USDC infrastructure.

Strategy disclosed another purchase on Sunday, adding 3,273 BTC for $255 million at an average price of $77,906. Total holdings: 818,334 BTC, roughly 3.9% of all bitcoin that will ever exist. Q1 earnings are due Tuesday, and the market expects a massive unrealized loss from BTCs Q1 decline from $87K to $68K. But with BTC now at $78K, Strategy is barely above its $75,537 average cost basis, and the narrative is shifting from "how much did they lose" to "theyre almost breakeven again."

Tether dropped its Q1 attestation on Thursday: $1.04 billion in net profit, $141 billion in US Treasuries, and an $8.23 billion reserve buffer. One day earlier, Senators Warren and Wyden launched their fourth investigation into ties between Tether and Commerce Secretary Lutnick's family trust. The numbers are impressive. The political surface area is enormous.

The week's one persistent warning sign was inflation. ISM Manufacturing PMI expanded for the fourth straight month, but the prices-paid component jumped to its highest level in four years. Factory input costs are rising because oil is rising, and oil is rising because the Strait of Hormuz is still effectively closed. The market can celebrate record highs, but the inflation data is telling a different story.

Gas prices illustrate the disconnect perfectly. The national average hit $4.37 on Friday, up from $3.57 a year ago. California is approaching $5. Diesel is above $5.40 nationally. These prices havent translated into consumer spending cuts yet, but the pressure is building. Every week Hormuz stays closed adds another layer of cost that eventually shows up in CPI, in earnings margins, and in voter sentiment.

The setup going into next week is loaded. Strategy reports Q1 Tuesday. The loss will be historic, likely exceeding $10 billion, but the market has already priced it. The question is whether Saylor signals a resumption of buying after the one-week pause. Project Freedom, Trump's Hormuz escort operation, launches Monday morning Middle East time. Iran has warned it will fire on any foreign military entering the strait. If the escort goes smoothly, oil drops and the rally extends. If Iran engages, the entire April narrative reverses.

The market ended the week pricing in peace. The war hasnt signed anything yet. That gap between what the market believes and what has actually been agreed is where the risk lives. April was the best month since 2020 for stocks. Whether May confirms or contradicts that story depends on a strait, a signature, and a semiconductor cycle that none of them can control.